Memorial Day weekend mess 

Posted: 6:20 am Monday, May 21st, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

A total washout it not foreseen as of now, but can’t be ruled out. Either way the chance of rain in much of the South and Southeast U.S. looks to feature above-normal odds this week and for the Memorial Day weekend Friday-Monday, and the rest of the month as well.

Some models have at times even shown a tropical storm type system or worse somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. However, wind shear and below normal water temperatures in the Eastern Gulf plus climatology argue against a named system. But we get another extended spell of unsettled weather either way.

Over a 10 day period parts of Florida will be looking at rainfall of 200-500% of normal with one-foot totals and flooding problems.

Regardless of a name or not the deep tropical moisture provided by both upper and surface low pressure fields will be problematic for sun bathing and BBQ plans across much of the SE region next 7 days at least.

That applies here in the Atlanta Metro area, but even more so for anywhere in Florida, the rest of the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Coast. Flooding will pop up from time to time in some spots in Georgia despite plenty of dry hours in-between.

Keep that in mind if you have family travel plans for the traditional kick-off to the summer season.

The Atlanta National Weather Service office has an excellent discussion on the weather forecast situation this week:

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TUESDAY:

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY:

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The ECMWF 6-week says more than normal clouds and rain prevents any big lasting heat through June:

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WxBell graphics (above) 500mb

The upper level low is placed similarly long term on the Euro:

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(Source: Environment Canada)

5-day estimated rainfall average NOAA/WPC:

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Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB

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