Posted: 6:09 am Thursday, May 24th, 2018
By Kirk Mellish
Read my previous 3 blog posts on this weather pattern for details I won’t repeat here.
For the Memorial Day holiday and for today through the next 6 days the song remains the same with variations on a theme each day and each location.
No non-stop rain days foreseen yet, but no day with no chance of rain either.
Whether you’re staying home in Metro Atlanta or going to the mountains of Georgia or nearby states or going to the beaches anywhere along the Gulf Coast or in Florida or the East Coast nature is playing songs from the same song book.
Rinse and repeat is the name of the game with a widespread tropical air mass regardless of if a low in the Gulf gets a name or not. There is no day or night with zero rain chance and it’s an over/under on 80 degrees for a high and 70 for a low.
For the Metro area there does not yet look like a complete washout day any of the next 7 but one could eventually develop.
The pattern will consist of plenty of dry areas and dry hours but also local “hot spots” that get flooding. There will be “bands or streaks” of wet with very nearby dry streaks.
On any given day or time a deluge in one neighborhood while one around the corner is dry. Some days the same areas will get hit each day at least once or repeatedly while another keeps getting missed remaining dry, or vice versa. It’s random so it’s dumb luck as to what happens where you are or where I am.
A shower will be possible ANYTIME of day or night, but on most days will reach a peak of coverage and intensity in the mid to late afternoon through early evening. No widespread severe weather is expected but an isolated strong storm is possible.
As I’ve pointed out for years, thunderstorm forecasts unlike other types, in some patterns (like this one) have to be updated about every 3 hours so expect changes.
An 8 model check indicates as of now looks like this pattern reaches a zenith May 28-31st.
It does look like we finally get some drying for a little more typical weather returning once we get to June 2nd or just after and then we heat up.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR DRIVING OR FLYING THIS AFTERNOON (NOAA/SPC):
RAINFALL AMOUNT ESTIMATED AVERAGE IN 24-HOUR INCREMENTS TODAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY:
3-DAY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL ESTIMATED AVERAGE:
AVERAGE Rain amounts estimated next 90-hours:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK NEXT 3 DAYS:
Since 1950 there have been 8 named tropical storms in the last week of May, but it is uncommon for them in the Gulf in May, there was Arlene in 1959. There are reports of a possible hurricane in the area around Mobile Bay during the Civil War.
The maps shown above WILL CHANGE each day so check for forecast updates and revisions on the radio every day and follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.