Looking ahead with models 

Posted: 8:10 am Tuesday, July 10th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

We are heading toward the heart of summer based on climatology:

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As the heat and humidity build back from time to time remember some car notes: Steering wheel can hit 180F in sun. Interior air temp even in a car with all windows OPEN in sun hits 100 in just 7 min! Closed window cars in sun get over 125 and breach 100 in under 5 minutes. These were tests with an outside temp of just 84!


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Here is how a couple of the models are showing the rest of summer and start of Fall.

The soil moisture based CAS model from CPC for August-October:

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It is at odds with the ensemble of North American Models, especially on temperature:



The Jamstec model (not shown) is similar to the NMME. I feel the warm and cold models are both overdone and favor more of the same for the Southeast U.S. or fairly close to normal on average, with a slight tilt toward the cooler and wetter, on a par with the August NMME:

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The international model ensemble for end of summer-start of Fall:





A long look ahead at winter in the models shows some intrigue in key sea surface temperature warm pools:

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IF correct, those sea-surface temperature anomalies teleconnect to a winter temperature pattern similar to what’s shown by the jamestec model:


IF that meets an enhanced El Nino sub-tropical (southern) jet stream storm track things could get interesting.


As always a reminder that all these maps represent a 3-month average except where noted, not every day or every week.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.