Looking ahead with models 

Posted: 8:10 am Tuesday, July 10th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

We are heading toward the heart of summer based on climatology:

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As the heat and humidity build back from time to time remember some car notes: Steering wheel can hit 180F in sun. Interior air temp even in a car with all windows OPEN in sun hits 100 in just 7 min! Closed window cars in sun get over 125 and breach 100 in under 5 minutes. These were tests with an outside temp of just 84!

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Here is how a couple of the models are showing the rest of summer and start of Fall.

The soil moisture based CAS model from CPC for August-October:

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It is at odds with the ensemble of North American Models, especially on temperature:

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1

The Jamstec model (not shown) is similar to the NMME. I feel the warm and cold models are both overdone and favor more of the same for the Southeast U.S. or fairly close to normal on average, with a slight tilt toward the cooler and wetter, on a par with the August NMME:

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The international model ensemble for end of summer-start of Fall:

IMME_tmp2m_us_season1

IMME_tmp2m_us_season3

IMME_prate_us_season1IMME_prate_us_season3

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A long look ahead at winter in the models shows some intrigue in key sea surface temperature warm pools:

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IF correct, those sea-surface temperature anomalies teleconnect to a winter temperature pattern similar to what’s shown by the jamestec model:

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1jun2018

IF that meets an enhanced El Nino sub-tropical (southern) jet stream storm track things could get interesting.

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season5

As always a reminder that all these maps represent a 3-month average except where noted, not every day or every week.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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