Not your fathers heart of summer 

Posted: 8:18 am Wednesday, July 18th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

Certainly this summer the center of hot and dry weather has not been in the Southeast, as it has been so often the past couple decades, but not the past couple summers.

This was the expected pattern in the long-range outlook issued back in May, that is, a lack of lasting extreme weather here in Georgia.

We continue to be in an usually active weather pattern here in the Southeast for the foreseeable future thanks to a lack of dominating high pressure (No Bermuda or Sonoran high aloft above us).

Much of the summer the strongest high pressure has been to our East and to our West and North, leaving a “weakness” or relative low pressure in-between for Georgia and adjacent states. Thus any hot dry weather just comes and goes quickly instead of locking in place.

It’s the reason we’ve had more clouds, rain and humidity than usual. And under those circumstances its easier to have a below normal high temperature than above.

And such a pattern is evolving for us once again with an atypical jet stream pattern coming back in the days ahead featuring a trough or even closed-low aloft:

gefs_z500_noram_19gefs_z500_noram_29eps_z500a_5d_noram_41__1_

5dayfcst500_wbg

The active pattern means more than normal surface fronts and low pressure systems:

5dayfcst_wbg_conus

This keeps total rainfall above-average through the long term:

eps_qpf_1104h_conus_185(189)

KATL_2018071800_eps_min_max_15KATL_2018071800_min_max_16

It’s difficult to get much big time heat with such an upper-level pattern persisting as seen in the CAS soil-moisture analog model from CPC:

cas_pt_mon.lead1cas_pt_mon.lead2cas_pt_mon.lead3cas_pt_sea.lead1

Remember this is the average or mean for the periods shown, not every day or every week.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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