Unsettled week of weather 

Posted: 6:23 am Tuesday, July 31st, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

I wrote four days ago we were going to see a reversal of the sunny drier weather pattern we had and it’s happening.

The jet stream configuration is changing and it will bring frontal low pressure systems at the surface and disturbances aloft to the region out of the Southwest flow feeding us a tropical air mass. The humidity will be rising as a result, cloud cover will be on the increase, the rain and thunderstorm chance will go up and the temperatures will come down as we move through the next 4 days. In fact most days will have below-normal temperatures, but it will be muggy.

There will still be plenty of dry hours in-between, especially today, but the rest of the week should see scattered showers and thunderstorms become likely at any time of the day or night, but it wont rain everywhere all the time.

SURFACE WEATHER MAP TUESDAY:

noaad1

SURFACE WEATHER MAP WEDNESDAY:

noaad2

SURFACE WEATHER MAP THURSDAY:

noaad3

TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

GA_swody1

EURO MODEL ENSEMBLE RAINFALL PER CENT OF NORMAL:

Image-1

500MB JET STREAM AND VORTICITY TUESDAY:

Screen Shot 2018-07-31 at 6.12.46 AM

500MB JET STREAM AND VORTICITY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

Screen Shot 2018-07-30 at 5.55.02 AM

No widespread severe weather is expected as of now, but an isolated damaging wind storm is possible. Eventually isolated flooding will be possible as well. The National Weather Service will issue a FLASH FLOOD WATCH metro-wide Wednesday and Thursday (green):

Screen Shot 2018-07-31 at 6.04.21 AM

3-day rainfall amounts are expected to AVERAGE 3 inches BUT with some HIGHER totals.

By the weekend into early next week the pattern aloft changes again with more high pressure building over the area and that should decrease the rain and storm threat to more normal levels for this time of year:

5dayfcst500_wbg

SURFACE WEATHER CHART THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY:

5dayfcst_wbg_conus

KATL_2018073106_min_max_16KATL_2018073100_eps_min_max_15

My 5-day Forecast.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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