Summer humidity returns, thunderstorm to follow 

Posted: 7:57 am Tuesday, August 28th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

After our nice brief break in the heat and humidity we’ve returned back to a more normal summertime weather pattern.

High pressure surface and aloft positioned to pump increasingly moist air into the region, add the heating of the day, and eventually a trough of low pressure aloft and some nearby fronts by the holiday weekend and we will get scattered showers and thunderstorms in the days ahead.

700mb (~10,000ft) jet stream pattern:

ruc12hr_700_tmp

Mid-day Tuesday SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

prog12hr

WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE CHART:

prog36hr

500MB (~218,000FT) JET STREAM AND VORTICITY SATURDAY MORNING:

gfs108hr_500_vrt

SURFACE CHART SATURDAY-MONDAY:

9khwbg_conus

9lhwbg_conus9mhwbg_conus

GFS TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CHART NEXT 16 DAYS:

gefs_t2anom_16_conus_1

GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE 15 DAY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

KPDK_2018082800_min_max_16KPDK_2018082800_eps_min_max_15

ECMWF ENSEMBLE 15-DAY RAINFALL ANOMALY CHART:

eps_tprecip_a_conus_61(26)

So far no day this week looks like a washout. The same looks true of the Labor Day Weekend including Monday.

There will be the typical late summer round of scattered showers and storms, mainly sometime in the window of 2pm to 11pm. The odds of any one place getting hit will range 40-60% over the course of the next 7 days.

Some sunshine each day and more dry hours than wet.

Hear my day to day breakdown on the radio or anytime on the WSB Radio APP.

My 5-Day Forecast.

SEPTEMBER AND THE NEXT 6 WEEKS FORECAST TEMP ANOMALY:

The models have some disagreement…

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_201809_12eps_t2m_1104h_conus_185(250)

I favor the warmer, at least for the first half of September.

RAINFALL ANOMALY NEXT 15 DAYS:

eps_tprecip_a_conus_61(26)

WATCHING THE TROPICS NEXT 10 DAYS AND BEYOND:

eps_tcprob_20_atlantic_6

TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE SEASON CLIMATOLOGY:

Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 9.34.28 AM

IF YOU MISSED MY TWEET A WEEK AGO ON WINTER FROM THE FARMERS AND THEIR ALMANACS:

Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 9.09.25 AMScreen Shot 2018-08-28 at 9.09.51 AM

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

0 comments