No autumn chill anytime soon, tropical systems active 

Posted: 7:10 am Wednesday, September 5th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

High pressure has been the dominant factor in our weather in recent days and is expected to be so (on average) for the next couple weeks with just some minor variations. This will keep temperatures warmer than normal on average, with rainfall near-average.

Note the 500mb jet stream pattern has mostly high pressure, with just a brief period with a trough approaching the area from the West before high pressure aloft reestablishes itself again longer term:

Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 5.49.48 AMScreen Shot 2018-09-05 at 5.50.17 AMScreen Shot 2018-09-05 at 5.51.32 AMScreen Shot 2018-09-05 at 5.52.16 AM610temp.new814temp.new

This does not mean it’s extreme heat, just warmer than normal for this time of year. Normal Atlanta high and low currently 85/68.

GFS AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

KATL_2018090500_min_max_16KATL_2018090500_eps_min_max_15eps_tprecip_a_east_61(17)

The tropics are alive and well, beyond 5 days uncertainty is high on the strength or track of any given cyclone, Florence OR others. But they ALL bare watching for potential impact on the U.S. That does NOT mean all or even any will hit land. But the threat is enough that people anywhere on the East Coast should prepare now.

We should have a better handle on FLORENCE by Sept 9th.

eps_tcprob_64_atlantic_5

The African Wave train from the ITCZ is active:

ecmwf_pwat_slp_atlantic_19

ecmwf_pwat_slp_atlantic_29

Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 7.02.16 AM

Follow me on TWITTER @MellishMeterWSB.

 

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