Active tropics calm down late month 

Posted: 10:49 am Monday, September 10th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

Large-scale atmospheric support (uplift) for the tropics should weaken after the third week of September.

FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE, CONCERN FOR CATASTROPHIC-HISTORIC FLOODING GROWS

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*Florence looks like it will hit very strong as a Cat 3 or 4 storm and bring severe flooding to the Carolinas and Virginia and maybe Eastern West VA. In a few spots inland mountains VA/Carolinas rain main be measured in feet when all is said and done. Wilmington is a prime target now for landfall or somewhere near that, but remember the average error at 5 days last year was 150 miles so too soon to know exactly where eye goes. Hurricane force wind gusts will likely impact well inland.

*A tropical depression or storm may hit somewhere in Texas by the end of the week.

*Isaac is expected to weaken South of Cuba and it’s future beyond that is in doubt.

*Helene stays out to sea. The central Atlantic system may just loop around and not be a land factor.

FLORENCE:

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PLEASE read previous post on Florence if you have not already.

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