Florence dangerous at 3, 2 or 1 

Posted: 5:49 pm Wednesday, September 12th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

Thanks to the slow movement and abnormal direction the dangers already covered Ad nauseam for a week now still remain for coastal Carolinas to Georgia coast.

See multiple previous posts if you missed them.

Florence is a little weaker at 5 pm with max winds now 120 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 mi from the center & tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 195 mi. Florence is located 385 mi southeast of Wilmington NC and is moving to the northwest at 16 mph.

Storm surge flooding has accounted for nearly half of the deaths associated with tropical cyclones over the past 50 years.

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Hurricane and storm surge warnings for Florence remain in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Tropical storm force winds are likely to start along the NC coast Thursday morning.

The wind is still a significant component for Florence, but keep in mind:

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Rare to be this busy not hardly unheard of, this is peak season. First time since 2008 with 4 named systems at same time, which is current record.  We’ll only cross one bridge at a time though and stick with Florence as first things first:

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Normally clarity would be growing at this forecast range, but the disappearance of steering currents makes this an odd duck along the coast, but then notice model consensus grows after that:

GLOBAL MODELS:

Dm67AbwXoAEhtq0Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 5.47.44 PM

ECMWF_06L_2018091212

TROPICAL STORM WIND PROBABILITIES BASED ON EURO ENSEMBLE:

eps_tcprob_34_gulf_3

HURRICANE FORCE WIND ODDS BASED ON EURO ENSEMBLE:

eps_tcprob_64_gulf_3

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 6.14.22 PM212431WPCQPF_sm212431_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 6.15.36 PM

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UNRELATED TO FLORENCE:

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205234_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

POSSIBLE DEPRESSION:

atcf_AL95_current

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