Posted: 4:21 pm Wednesday, September 12th, 2018
By Kirk Mellish
Really not a true precedent for a track path and timeline like Florence so could produce some unexpected unorthodox impacts. (Black Swan Event). Historic rain totals in some areas (Harvey Texas 2017-like) and unusual storm surge results possible.
Slow slog would mean horriffic flooding and coastal errorion with batteng winds, flooding rains in a multi-hazard multi day ordeal, a real grind NC/SC.
It’s mother nature, always a chance we escape the worst case scenario by the hari of our chinny chin chin. (Mathew/Joaquin). As none other than the President said: “It’s mother nature, nobody knows”.
If eye stays just offshore that’s really bad, if it goes just in then more weakening. Still an unknown.
20-40 inch rain in coastal and near-coastal areas are hard to comprehend but they happen, even if such amounts are not widespread history tells us if when and where they occur it causes catastrophic life-threatening floods.
People evacuating INTO Florida instead of out of sure is rare.
If the trend for Florence “wind field” then the size of the negative impact field will expand as well, allowing stronger winds to impact more people and increase storm surge.
Florence has already achieved the lowest central pressure for a hurricane this far north since Sandy in 2012.
If it really meanders along the coastal Carolinas for multiple days it’s a nightmare scenario for wind and water impacts, rain measured in feet in some spots would be real disaster through Saturday.
The Cone of Uncertainy is important ONLY for considering the track/path of the eye or center of the storm, critical impacts can and do occur OUTSIDE of the “cone”. Even less than “severe” or less than tropical storm force winds when combined with wet soils can mean trees fall and power outages far-reaching beyond point of landfall. (tropical storm force gusts of around 40mph are like a strong thunderstorm).
The future size is not certain, but as of now hurricane force winds extend up to 70 miles from the eye and tropical storm force winds extend out 175 miles form the eye. Where the “official landfall” ends up is a point, this is a broad AREA storm, eventhough the strongest winds will hug the coast “relatively speaking”.
Inland river flooding will take place over a weeks time after any coastal flash flooding especially the Carolinas.
Model consensus growing for the slow crawl Southern NC hit then along SC/GA before moving W/NW.
More posts to come.