Posted: 11:24 am Friday, September 14th, 2018
By Kirk Mellish
The wind damage and storm surge inundation flooding will continue with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding, battering waves and beach erosion as the tropical cyclone slowly but steadily unwinds. Record rainfall will be measured in feet in some areas when all is said and done.
The 105 mph wind gust at Wilmington, NC was the second strongest on record.
Even as winds diminish near the coasts the flooding will continue with more rain bands to come and the risk of an isolated tornado.
As far as the water and rain this is a marathon not a sprint. There will be a long-term river flood threat well inland as heavy rain continues in the coming days, some rivers wont crest until sometime next week.
Savannah GA forecast:
Charleston, SC forecast:
Florence moving W/SW at just 3 mph
BLUE shading is the Cone of Uncertainty.
Florence has turned west-southwestward and the motion estimate is now 245/03 kt. Florence is expected to remain embedded within a weak steering flow regime within a weakness in the subtropical ridge, resulting in a slow westward motion for the next 36-48 hours across South Carolina. As a shortwave trough currently located over the eastern Great Lakes to Maryland moves eastward away from the region over the next 2 days, the ridge will begin to build back in and shift eastward, allowing Florence or its remnants to gradually turn northward over the weekend, and then move northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies as an extratropical low. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to the middle of the model guidance envelope. Wind data from the earlier aircraft mission, along with Doppler radar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that Florence has weakened. Additional slow weakening is expected today as the center of Florence moves farther inland, with more rapid weakening forecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across South Carolina. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows the trend of Decay SHIPS model. Florence Perspectives behind the forecast.