Just the beginning of Florence 

Posted: 11:24 am Friday, September 14th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

The wind damage and storm surge inundation flooding will continue with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding, battering waves and beach erosion as the tropical cyclone slowly but steadily unwinds. Record rainfall will be measured in feet in some areas when all is said and done.

The 105 mph wind gust at Wilmington, NC was the second strongest on record.

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Even as winds diminish near the coasts the flooding will continue with more rain bands to come and the risk of an isolated tornado.

As far as the water and rain this is a marathon not a sprint. There will be a long-term river flood threat well inland as heavy rain continues in the coming days, some rivers wont crest until sometime next week.

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Savannah GA forecast:

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Charleston, SC forecast:

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Florence moving W/SW at just 3 mph

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BLUE shading is the Cone of Uncertainty.

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Florence has turned west-southwestward and the motion estimate
is now 245/03 kt. Florence is expected to remain embedded within a
weak steering flow regime within a weakness in the subtropical
ridge, resulting in a slow westward motion for the next 36-48 hours
across South Carolina. As a shortwave trough currently located over
the eastern Great Lakes to Maryland moves eastward away from the
region over the next 2 days, the ridge will begin to build back in
and shift eastward, allowing Florence or its remnants to gradually
turn northward over the weekend, and then move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies as an extratropical low. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to
the middle of the model guidance envelope.

Wind data from the earlier aircraft mission, along with Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that Florence
has weakened. Additional slow weakening is expected today as the
center of Florence moves farther inland, with more rapid weakening
forecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across South
Carolina. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous advisory, and closely follows the trend of Decay SHIPS
model.

Florence Perspectives behind the forecast.
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