Pattern change to bring some relief 

Posted: 9:10 am Wednesday, September 19th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

The dry spell and heat wave look to start breaking down next week replacing the July/August level temperatures with lower values but more humidity and a return of some rain. Temperatures next week closer to normal for this time of year.

The heat index and the air temperature thermometer highs are close together indicating that the humidity is not as out of control as the temperature. Macon broke a 1931 record high yesterday reaching 100.

First next week and increase in clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will help lower temperatures as high pressure surface and aloft begin to weaken. Then beyond that models suggest an actual cold front down the line as a +PNA upper-air pattern develops.

Screen Shot 2018-09-19 at 8.07.20 AM

gefs_pna_00eps_pna_bias

EURO 6-WEEK AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION:

eps_t2m_1104h_conus_185(263)eps_qpf_1104h_conus_185(217)eps_sno_1104_conus_185(123)

No I don’t believe the Southern Appalachian snow.

Despite the warm “average” compared to normal there will as always be day to day and week to week variation!

The Jet Stream (500mb level shown) changes from this next 5 days:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_21

To this the following 5 days:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_41

And then to this another 5 days:

gefs_z500a_5d_noram_63

The Euro is stronger with the upper-level trough suggesting frost or freeze I-80 North end of the month with upper Midwest snow flakes possible:

Screen Shot 2018-09-19 at 8.45.30 AM

So you see a Canadian cold front sweeps through much of the country East of the Rockies in the medium range bringing at least temporary relief, of course most of the heat wave relief is to our West and North but we get some (EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE):

Screen Shot 2018-09-19 at 8.57.37 AMScreen Shot 2018-09-19 at 8.59.04 AM

GFS ENSEMBLE 16-Day above and below normal temp areas:

gefs_t2anom_16_conus_1

The change is supported by CIPS analog guidance:

PTMPA000_gefsF312

Screen Shot 2018-09-19 at 6.14.03 PM

EURO WEEKLIES TEMPERATURE TRENDS:

Week ending Oct 18th:

eps_t2m_168h_northamer_8(226)

Week ending Oct 25th:

eps_t2m_168h_northamer_10(222)

Week ending Nov 2:

eps_t2m_168h_northamer_12(219)

Keep in mind here in the Southeast even “normal” chilly temperatures are not supposed to be here yet:

Screen Shot 2018-09-19 at 10.43.49 AM

 

Next 10-days areas to watch for any tropical trouble are shaded:

eps_tcprob_34_atlantic_8

May have to watch the area from New Orleans to Cape Hatteras in October.

Screen Shot 2018-09-19 at 9.09.05 AM

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