Winter model update 

Posted: 12:39 pm Saturday, September 22nd, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

What does the fox say? I don’t know, but here’s the latest from the long-term version of the (BenN*llweather) ECMWF …the SEAS5. This is the seasonal run of the model.

It shows high latitude blocking growing stronger as the winter gets longer, it shows a tendency for a +PNA pattern (ridge West-trough East).

It also projects an enhanced speed sub-tropical jet stream flow across the southern tier of the country suggesting an active and possibly moist jet stream storm track. The southern jet projected stronger than normal with a weaker northern polar jet stream.

Any October or November snow stays well Northwest and Northeast of Georgia.

DECEMBER JET PATTERN ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF-SEAS5 MODEL:

Screen Shot 2018-09-21 at 12.04.24 PM

JANUARY:

Screen Shot 2018-09-20 at 2.03.33 PM

FEBRUARY:

Screen Shot 2018-09-20 at 2.03.49 PM

MARCH:

Screen Shot 2018-09-20 at 2.04.04 PM

SEAS5 SNOWFALL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL DECEMBER:

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JANUARY-MARCH:

Screen Shot 2018-09-21 at 9.21.37 AM

I’ve seen similar patterns suggested by the JMA and JAMSTEC models at times over the past few months.

The ARPEGE Model run by France is supportive of above normal snow odds in Georgia especially February-March, particularly March and to a lesser extent January. The UKMET GLOSEA5 model is most favorable for snow in January with normal to below-normal odds before and after.

Keep in mind this is just some model output and there are many other models. They all change each month they are run. I’ll be looking at them more seriously in the next couple months along with all the others and doing back testing for analog years.

My first guesstimate will be issued by around Halloween with the final winter outlook  no later than the week of December 3rd.

Follow me on Twiiter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

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