Summertime lives on 

Posted: 12:52 pm Sunday, September 30th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

In my blog posts of Sept 21 and Sept 27th I posted about the ridge in the east and it’s reluctance to leave and the October warm outlook.

No change in what I said back then even after a little heat break at the end of last week and over the weekend into the start of the new week with help from a weak “wedge pattern”.

As the wedge breaks down high pressure will build back over the area surface and aloft.

The anticyclone will take up a Great Smokies position with subtropical ridge across much of the South and Southeast.

This means a mostly dry week with a warming trend. Temperatures will be running up to 10 degrees above normal or more Wednesday into next Sunday.

There’s some hope temperatures will lower to less than 80 as the ridge breaks down after the 12th of October.

MONDAY ECMWF 8H TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS JET STREAM PATTERN:

Screen Shot 2018-09-30 at 12.40.35 PM

SAME FOR WEDNESDAY:

Screen Shot 2018-09-30 at 12.41.16 PM

FRIDAY:

Screen Shot 2018-09-30 at 12.43.29 PM

SUNDAY:

Screen Shot 2018-09-30 at 12.45.22 PM

3-7 DAY SURFACE CHARTS:

5dayfcst_wbg_conus

image

hazards_d8_14_contours_home

That big deep trough of low pressure in the Southwest U.S. will work east in weaker fashion but it will help break down and push out the heat ridge in the East U.S.

At the same time some tropical mischief could aid that process somewhere in the Southeast or east from the Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico. That too would help edge out the heat ridge and increase rain amounts to aid cooling, but not until mid-October or beyond.

Screen Shot 2018-10-02 at 6.00.49 AM

BTW, there’s an old forecast rule of thumb that says where the mean ridge is in autumn is where the mean trough will be in winter. Good test of that coming up this year into next.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

 

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