Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Leaf-lookers of Autumn

  • 8:02 am Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Forecast color change maps below:

“Nobody on the road,
Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air
The summer’s out of reach
Empty lake, empty streets
The sun goes down alone” — Don Henley, Boys of Summer

“All afternoon his tractor pulls a flat wagon with bales to the barn, then back to the waiting chopped field. It trails a feather of smoke. Down the block we bend with the season:

Winter Outlook 2018-19

  • 12:00 am Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Last winter started with a weak La Nina that faded in late winter. If you missed it my previous blog reviewed last winter.

I’ve already spent the past several months showing you a variety of factors in the earths oceans and atmosphere that influence winter weather along with discussing solar cycles and computer climate models. So I won’t go over all of it again, just some highlights.

This winter season is expected to feature a weak El Nino and it’s expected to be a Central Pacific centered event to the West of the traditional El Nino which would be centered near [More]

Last winter, one of discontent

  • 12:27 pm Sunday, October 14th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Since my first look at the coming winter will be on the radio Tuesday at 620, 720 and 820 in the morning lets review last winter a very unusual one with wild swings.

Not only did last winter start off with a roar with record early heavy snow in the Northwest suburbs (December 8-9). Another storm brought a dusting of snow to the far south suburbs and a half to 3.5 inches snow in the far north suburbs along with a tenth to just over a quarter of an inch of ice on January 6-7th.

Savannah had its greatest snow in 30 [More]

Post Michael highlights in Georgia

  • 5:40 am Friday, October 12th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Isolated six inch totals Northwest and Southeast suburbs from Michael. All total radar estimates 3 Trillion gallons of water fell on Georgia!

As far as wind very impressive that about 80 miles inland in Georgia a gust of 115 mph equivalent to an EF-2 tornado:

The wind was not that strong in Metro Atlanta but thanks to our tree situation and soggy soils there were still scattered power outages as expected:

Storm surge is often the most damaging aspect of a tropical system and the most widespread, its the ocean pushed ashore by the storm with the wind driven water capable of topping [More]

Fall weather alert, taste of Autumn

  • 6:34 am Thursday, October 11th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Our long advertised and long anticipated shot of some fall temperatures is upon us, much awaited by many after the late run of heat.

Coolest temperatures in seven months.

Rainfall from Michael across the metro area ranged 2-6 inches, max wind gusts in the NW suburbs 25 mph on the SE side 40 mph with isolated higher gusts.

Michael was near a CAT 5 storm at landfall near Mexico Beach Florida with max winds aloft 155 mph, at the surface an official wind gust of 129 mph at Panama City airport equivalent to an F-2 tornado.

Seeing some of the hardest hit areas in [More]

Michael the menace

  • 5:57 pm Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

South and Central Georgia get pounded from Hurricane Michael. For the Metro Atlanta area we still get an impact the next 12-24 hours.

The last Cat 3 or higher tropical cyclone to track into Georgia was 1898 according to expert Philip Klotzbach.

Highest risk for flooding and power outages remains near and South of a line from Athens to La grange. Any flooding or power outages Northwest of that line will be the exception not the rule baring any last minute changes in the path of Michael.

EXPERIMENTAL UNIV OF MICHIGAN POWER OUTAGE MAP up to 5 million power loss:

NWS discussion Atlanta:

First time [More]

Dangerous hurricane

  • 11:10 am Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE… …LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT.

WATER LEVELS QUICKLY RISING AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES… 

Michael forecast to be strongest hurricane on record for Florida Panhandle Coastline. Deciding to ride this one out at the coast could be a deadly decision.

Potentially historic hurricane Michael begins its assault on the Florida Panhandle.

Most of the Metro Atlanta area will be on the weaker left side of the track as the eye of the storm moves rapidly Northeast across South Georgia. [More]

Just a look at wind in Georgia

  • 9:17 am Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Not trying to cover Michael in detail here that’s been covered in dozens of other blog posts and Tweets for over a week now.

Just wanted to post the ECMWF hourly wind gusts charts for you to reference.

Remember, after it’s been raining for a while, once the amounts get moderate to heavy and the soils soften, it doesn’t take much for weak trees or branches to fall, it can happen with 30 mph winds, without soggy soils the benchmark is 50 mph.

As of now the worst of the wind and rain for flooding or power outages expected to be near and [More]

Dangerous Hurricane Michael

  • 5:16 pm Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE… …LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST… 

Max winds 125 mph near eye and storm surge 9-13 feet parts of Florida Panhandle.

No huge changes in the forecast thinking of the past few days both for Florida and adjacent areas or for Metro Atlanta. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight on and near the Gulf Coast while the eye of the storm is projected onshore Wednesday afternoon.

As always any last minute changes in strength or track could cause a significant change in the local weather so stay tuned just in case.

But [More]

Hurricane heads for Florida Panhandle

  • 5:50 am Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MICHAEL IS STILL STRENGTHENING… …LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST… Max wind gusts forecast at landfall 125 mph near the eye.

The Florida Panhandle and adjacent areas still under the gun from Michael including parts of Central, South and East Georgia.

For Metro Atlanta the impact is currently expected to be minimal with rain and wind, but keep in mind that could easily change with even a slight shift in the predicted path so don’t let your guard down and stay tuned for updates on the radio all day [More]